Signs Hyperinflation Is Arriving

This post is gonna be short and sweet—and scary: 
  
Back in late August, I argued that hyperinflation would be triggered by a run on Treasury bonds. I described how such a run might happen, and argued that if Treasuries were no longer considered safe, then commodities would become the store of value. 

  

See, how come I don’t look as cool
when I make my predictions?

Such a run on commodities, I further argued, would inevitably lead to price increases and a rise in the Consumer Price Index, which would initially be interpreted by the Federal Reserve, the Federal government, as well as the commentariat, as a good thing: A sign that “the economy is recovering”, a sign that “normalcy” was returning. 

  

I argued that—far from being “a sign of recovery”—rising CPI would be the sign that things were about to get ugly. 

  

I concluded that, like the stagflation of ‘79, inflation would rise to the double digits relatively quickly. However, unlike in 1980, when Paul Volcker raised interest rates severely in order to halt inflation, in today’s weakened macro-economic environment, that remedy is simply not available to Ben Bernanke. 
  
Therefore, I predicted that inflation would spiral out of control, and turn into hyperinflation of the U.S. dollar. 
  
A lot of people claimed I was on drugs when I wrote this. 
  
Now? Not so much. 

  

In my initial argument, I was sure that there would come a moment when Treasury bond holders would realize that they are the New & Improved Toxic Asset—as everyone knows, there is no way the U.S. Federal government can pay the outstanding debt it has: It’s simply too big. 
  
So I assumed that, when the market collectively realized this, there would be a panic in Treasuries. This panic, of course, would lead to the spike in commodities. 

Was Stagflation in ‘79 Really Hyperinflation?

If my best friend is the truth, then my next best friend is history. 

I’ve been writing about the possibility of hyperinflation, if there is ever a run on Treasury bonds. My argument has been, Treasuries are the New & Improved Toxic Assets, a termite-riddled house waiting to collapse. If and when there is a run on them, money will flow to a safe haven, which I am predicting will be commodities. As a byproduct of this sell off in Treasuries and buy up of commodities, consumer prices will rise catastrophically in a hyperinflationary event—and the dollar will be left dead on the highway like roadkill. 

  

This scenario got me thinking about the last time there was a panicked run-up in commodities: The stagflation of the 1970’s in the United States, specifically the period 1979–1983. Oil nearly doubled in price, gold and silver went hyperbolic. Gas shortages were rampant—the situation almost got to the point where the government considered rationing gasoline. In fact, ration cards were printed—that’s how bad things got. 
  
Because of the Oil Shock, the inflation index rose to a peak of 15%—yet unemployment also exploded, reaching almost 11%. This combination of unemployment and inflation was what gave the period its name—stagflation: “Stagnant inflation”. 

  

Thinking about this period, I asked myself a simple question: Could the ‘79 Oil Shock, and subsequent bout of stagflation, be better understood as a period of incipient hyperinflation? And if so, what lessons could it teach us about today? 

WikiLeaks promises to reveal Swiss banking secrets

(BBS NEWS) -- A Swiss whistle-blower Monday handed over what he said were secret Swiss banking records to WikiLeaks, the website dedicated to revealing secrets.
Swiss banker Rudolf Elmer handed two discs to WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange at a news conference in London.

Tunisia unrest: Renewed anti-government protests

New protests have broken out on the streets of Tunisia's capital, Tunis, hours before the expected announcement of a new national unity government.

Police used water cannon, teargas and occasional gunshots to disperse several hundred demonstrators calling for the party of ousted President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali to relinquish power.
The country has been in a state of emergency since he fled on Friday.
PM Mohammed Ghannouchi says a deal between parties will be unveiled later.
Mr Ben Ali, who had been in power for 23 years, fled to Saudi Arabia on Friday after a month of mounting protests across the country over unemployment, food price rises and corruption.

Major winter storm wallops Northeast

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The second major snow storm of the winter season blanketed the Northeast on Wednesday, canceling thousands of flights and frustrating commuters but it was not enough to keep New York school children from going to class.

The National Weather Service reported snow on the ground in 49 of the 50 states -- only Florida was spared -- and much of the South was still battling icy conditions that made roads dangerous and led to several traffic deaths.

Floods pour into Brisbane; 20,000 homes in danger

BRISBANE, Australia – Floodwaters poured into the empty downtown of Australia's third-largest city Wednesday after tearing a deadly path across the northeast, swamping neighborhoods in what could be Brisbane's most devastating floods in a century.

The surging, muddy waters reached the tops of traffic lights in some parts of Brisbane, and the city's mayor said at least 20,000 homes were in danger of being inundated.
At least 22 people have died and more than 40 are missing across Australia's northeastern state of Queensland since drenching rains that began in November sent swollen rivers spilling over their banks, flooding an area larger than France and Germany combined. Brisbane, the state capital with a population of 2 million, is the latest city to face down the waters, and officials expect the death toll to rise.

Dad pursued Ariz. massacre suspect before shooting

Hours after Randy Loughner's confrontation with his 22-year-old son Saturday morning, six people were shot dead and more than a dozen others wounded — and Jared Loughner was in custody.

The sheriff's deputies who swarmed the Loughners' house removed what they describe as evidence Jared Loughner was targeting Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, who doctors said Tuesday was breathing on her own for the first time after taking a bullet to the forehead. Among the handwritten notes was one with the words "Die, bitch," which authorities told The Associated Press they believe was a reference to Giffords.

In Arizona case, experts say planning undermines insanity plea

 

How Giffords survived brain shot

 

Senator urges ban on large gun clips

 

Hart: 'Tone it down!'

 

How do you defend a shooting suspect?

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Reports: A neighbor says the suspect's parents are devastated
• "Right now it is important as a community to pull together," a bishop says
• Nine-year-old victim's mother: "I hope people will look for hope, for change, for peace"
• Rep. Gabrielle Giffords' remains in critical condition, doctors say

For more information, visit CNN affiliates KGUN, KOLD, KVOA, KPHO and KMSB. Read the federal charges against Jared Lee Loughner (PDF).

Tucson, Arizona  The alleged shooter in Saturday's deadly Tucson massacre may have difficulty making the case for a successful insanity plea, experts said Tuesday.

Weight of words in focus after Arizona shooting

A crowd, including members of Congress and staff, pauses for a moment of silence to honor the Arizona shooting victims.

 

 

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Militant-themed messages and speeches laced with fear mark political dialogue
• Lawmakers on both sides of aisle call on colleagues to tone it down
• The notion that rhetoric caused the violence is "fallacious," professor says
• Health care debate looms again in House; it could be volatile

For more information, visit CNN affiliates KGUN, KOLD, KVOA, KPHO and KMSB. Read the federal charges against Jared Lee Loughner (PDF).

There's no evidence the heated political environment played any role in the shooting spree that left Rep. Gabrielle Giffords in critical condition and killed six others, but observers say if nothing else, the tragedy will force politicians to re-evaluate their rhetoric.

Obamas to travel to Tucson Wednesday in wake of weekend rampage

Shooting heroes tell their stories

 

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• The president will attend a memorial service and visit with victims' families
• He has spoken to many of the family members already by phone
• Obama led the country in a moment of silence on Monday

Washington  President Barack Obama will travel to Arizona on Wednesday in the wake of the weekend shooting there that left six people dead and 14 wounded, including a member of Congress, two senior administration officials told CNN Monday.

Australia's prime minister: Flooding expected to rise in St. George

January 8, 2011 -- Updated 1246 GMT (2046 HKT)

Australian PM Julia Gillard flies in an army helicopter to view the flooded Fitzroy River in Rockhampton on January 8, 2011.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• NEW: Gillard says $4 million has been allocated, but hundreds of millions more are needed
• Flooding recedes in Rockhampton but could still peak in St. George
• Parts of eastern Australia are forecast to get above-average rainfall until March
• Queensland official: The repair could take months or years to complete

Rockhampton, Australia While floodwaters in Australia have begun to recede in some areas, the worst could still be on the way for at least one city, the country's prime minister said Saturday.
"Today I've been in St. George, and they are still bracing for the peak of the flood," Julia Gillard told Australia's Nine Network, according to a transcript from the prime minister's office. "They're very well prepared, but of course they're anxious as they await the peak."

In Iraq, a popular cleric cranks up anti-U.S. rhetoric

"We continue to resist the occupier militarily, culturally and by all means," Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr tells Iraqis on Saturday.

 

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Muqtada al-Sadr returned to Iraq after three years in Iran
• He delivers his first public speech in Iraq in years
• The cleric calls for Iraqis to unite and resist

Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, the anti-American political figure who returned to Iraq this week from self-imposed exile, told tens of thousands of his followers Saturday to "resist" and "disturb" the United States.
"We have not forgotten the occupier. We remain a resistance," said al-Sadr, delivering a fiery speech in the holy Shiite city of Najaf, his first public address in Iraq in years. "We continue to resist the occupier militarily, culturally and by all means of the resistance."

Report: Iran says it can create its own nuclear fuel plates, rods

The reactor at the Bushehr nuclear power plant in southern Iran. The Iranian atomic chief says Iran can build nuclear fuel plates.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Salehi reportedly says Iran wants nuclear technology for "peaceful purposes"
• The West's behavior "facilitated our successes," Salehi tells Fars news agency
• Fars: Iran hopes to inject self-produced uranium into a reactor by the middle of next year

 Iran can now make its own nuclear fuel plates and rods, spurred in part by the West's behavior, the country's atomic chief and acting foreign minister told the nation's media.

Is the Federal Reserve Really Purchasing Over 60% of 2011’s Fiscal Deficit? In a Word, uh . . . Yeah.

The other day, in my post “The Lull Before the Storm”, I mentioned that for fiscal year 2011, the Federal Reserve would be purchasing over 60% of the Federal government deficit.

Literally.

In other words, the Fed would be dancing the Monetization Waltz, just like Latin American countries used to back in the 1970’s: Proof positive that America is indeed a banana republic—only with nukes.

A lot of people didn’t believe me—or wanted me to check my figures. Or wanted to know if I was having an acid flashback from those aformentioned 1970’s. A lot of people couldn’t believe it.

Mark Twain said it best: There are lies, damned lies, and statistics. If you want to deceive your audience, you source your numbers from some shifty salesman with an ideological ax to grind, gussy it up with percentage signs and charts and graphs, and thereby “prove” any damned foolishness you like.

But deceit in this context serves no purpose: It’s in all of our best interests to know exactly what is going on, in fiscal year 2011. 

So in this brief post (yes I know—shocker), I’m gonna check the figures for my observation—but I’m gonna get ‘em right from the horse’s mouth: From the White House, and from the Federal Reserve. 

To begin—

British lawyer calls for international inquiry into RAB

A high-profile British lawyer has called for a UK-led international inquiry into the activities of Bangladeshi elite force RAB. The objective of the inquiry will be to uncover the truth behind RAB’s highly dubious human rights record.

If it is found that RAB consistently violated these rights in carrying out their operations, the UK government can be dissuaded from providing the training and support facilities that it has been to RAB over the last three years, as revealed in US embassy cables relating to Bangladesh released by whistleblower site WikiLeaks.
Talking to UNB over phone from his office in Birmingham, Phil Shiner, who has gained a reputation as arguably the most combative human rights lawyer in Britain, sounded in no doubt about RAB being a reckless, Latin American-style “death squad”, as described in a damaging report published by left-leaning British newspaper the Guardian, on December 23.
“There must be a full inquiry initiated by the UK into the activities of the RAB,” said Shiner, before adding, “all states owe duties to each other to cooperate and uncover RAB’s activities, and to bring all unlawful activities, including of executions, to an immediate end.”
The law firm Shiner founded, Public Interest Lawyers, wrote a letter to the UK government’s Home, and Foreign offices following publication of the Guardian report, seeking a judicial review of the legality of UK support for RAB.
Asked what sort of evidence this legal challenge would rely upon to make its case, Shiner said “it’s all there, in the cables.”
When it was pointed out that any evidence contained in the cables may not be admissible in court, the man who came to fame by representing Iraqi prisoners against the British government added that past reports from groups like Amnesty and Human Rights Watch also amounted to evidence, apart from answers to specific questions related to the issue provided in Britain’s parliament.

Police silent on security as threat level for London is raised

London  British Transport Police are not commenting on reports that it has beefed up security presence at subway stations and airports after new information emerged about the possibility of an attack being planned in or near London.
"We don't have armed officers in our stations," the agency said Friday. "We have been briefed about how to respond to a Mumbai-style gun over the last few months. We don't comment on deployment of officers but I can tell you that we haven't cancelled any leave."
Several media outlets in England, citing anonymous security officials, had reported a stepped-up police presence in response to the potential threat.

Britain, Canada reject Gbagbo's authority on envoys

Laurent Gbagbo pressured to step down

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Britain says it has recognized Alassane Ouattara as president of Ivory Coast
• Official: "Canada does not recognize Laurent Gbagbo's claim to government"
• Announcement comes after British, Canadian envoys were rejected by Gbagbo officials

London -- Canada and Britain announced Thursday that they have rejected the authority of self-proclaimed President Laurent Gbagbo to make any decision regarding their representatives.
Britain noted it has recognized Alassane Ouattara as the democratically elected president of Ivory Coast, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office said.

U.N.: Southern Sudanese head back home

Clooney to monitor Sudan election

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• An average of 2,000 people are crossing into the south daily
• For many, the return is an "opportunity to start afresh"
• The important secession vote is next week

 Southern Sudanese have been steadily trickling back home from their country's northern region ahead of next week's historic election, the U.N. refugee agency said on Friday.

Coffee spill diverts United Airlines flight, Transport Canada says

Don't underestimate the power of a spilled cup of coffee.
A United Airlines flight from Chicago to Frankfurt, Germany, was diverted to Toronto this week after the pilot dumped a cup of coffee on the plane's communication's equipment. The unwanted liquid triggered a series of emergency codes, including one for a hijacking, according to Transport Canada, the agency that regulates transportation in Canada.
"With the help of their company dispatch staff, the flight crew was confirmed the problem to be a NAV(navigation)/communication issue and not a valid code 7500 (for a hijacking or unlawful interference)," Transport Canada said on its website.
Flight 940 initially was going to return to Chicago, but then diverted to Pearson International Airport in Toronto where it landed without incident around 10 p.m. Monday.
United had little to say about the coffee spill that led to the diversion, and did not acknowledge that the caffeinated beverage had anything to do with it.

Amid massive security, Egypt's Christians protest peacefully

Hundreds of security officers in riot gear herd supporters of Coptic Christians through Shubra, a Cairo suburb, on Tuesday.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Tuesday night marks first peaceful protest since New Year's attack in Alexandria
• Death toll from blast has risen to 23 Coptic Christians
• Coptic Christians make up 9 percent of Egyptian population

Cairo, Egypt (CNN) -- Hundreds of supporters of Egyptian Christians protesting a New Year's bombing that killed nearly two dozen of their members marched Tuesday night on a church in a Cairo suburb, where they were met by an equal number of security officers in riot gear.
For the first night since the car bomb, which detonated in front of a Coptic church in Alexandria, there were no reports of violence during the protests.
The car bombing death toll rose to 23, Egypt's state news agency MENA reported Tuesday.
Christians and Muslim supporters in the Shubra neighborhood of Cairo shouted their outrage over the Alexandria attack on Coptic Christians.
"With my blood and my soul I will defend the cross," chanted crowds of protesters, as they wended their way down Shubra Street toward a church. Some carried crosses -- up to 4 feet (1.22 meters) long -- emblazoned with messages of protest written in red ink to represent blood. Some protesters lay down on the street, prostrating themselves in the shape of a cross.